El Nino 2026 in Kenya is shaping the short rains season that runs from October to December. In late August the Kenya Meteorological Department said above-average rainfall was expected over 80% of the country between October and December, and K24 reported that the department described El Nino as strengthening toward a very strong event. If you own a plot, a house under construction or a rental and you live abroad, you are watching from a distance, often through a caretaker's photos.
This post sets out what the official warnings say, then the questions worth asking the people on the ground before the heaviest weeks arrive.
What Kenya Met and the government have said about El Nino 2026
The forecast came out of the National Climate Outlook Forum at the end of August. The main points, as reported at the time:
- Most of the country is affected. Kenyans.co.ke reported on 26 August that Kenya Met expected above-average rain across all 47 counties, rising in intensity especially in Central, the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria basin and Western Kenya.
- Named counties. K24's report listed Nairobi, Kiambu, Nakuru, Kakamega, Mombasa and Garissa for above-average rain, and said Nandi, Bungoma, Trans Nzoia, Kisumu and Kericho could see continuous rain from September into January 2027.
- Timing. Onset was expected in the second and third weeks of October for Nairobi and for Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kiambu and Murang'a, with a similar pattern on the Coast. The Lake Victoria basin counties (Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, Siaya) were expected to start in September.
- How long. Citizen Digital reported on 9 September that the Meteorological Department said El Nino conditions could persist from October 2026 through February 2027.
- The Indian Ocean. The Indian Ocean Dipole index stood at +0.17°C on 23 August and was projected to turn positive during September, according to the same K24 report.
The government has also mapped risk. Citizen Digital reported that 18 counties were classified as high-risk, spread across the Coast, Lake, North Eastern and Rift Valley regions. The article named Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu, Mombasa, Kwale, Kisumu, Busia, Siaya, Homa Bay and Migori among them, and flagged Lakes Baringo and Bogoria as areas of concern.
The Kenya Red Cross went further. Kenyans.co.ke reported on 6 September that it warned more than two million people could be affected, with 46 of 47 counties at risk. The same report said Nairobi had identified 16 flood hotspots, and that more than 100,000 households in the city could be affected in the worst of the three scenarios it had mapped.
Forecasts carry uncertainty. A county named as high-risk will not flood everywhere, and a county left off a list can still have a bad week. Use the warnings to decide what to check, not to predict what will happen to one plot.
If your property is near a river: the riparian question
This is the issue that costs owners the most, and it has nothing to do with whether the house is well built.
At the 9 September briefing, Environment Cabinet Secretary Deborah Barasa told people living on riparian land to vacate immediately and move to higher ground, according to Citizen Digital. A Kenya Met advisory reported by K24 on 21 September carried the same message: move away from river reserves.
Riparian reclamation in Nairobi did not start with this season. In August, Kenyans.co.ke reported that the Nairobi Rivers Commission's demarcation covers about 27 kilometres of the Nairobi River, from Gitwamba Bridge to Naivasha Road, using a 30-metre buffer from the highest water mark. Reclamation work had already taken place along streets in Parklands.
Holding papers does not settle the matter either. In March 2026 the Environment and Land Court rejected a bid by more than 30 property owners to stop the government reclaiming riparian land along the Nairobi River, Business Daily reported. The owners said they had developed in the 1990s with government approvals. The court said the right to own land is not absolute and that the state can regulate land use in ecologically sensitive areas.
What this means if you own near water, or are about to buy near water:
- Ask your surveyor or advocate how far the boundary sits from the river or stream, measured from the high water mark, and get the answer in writing.
- If a seller describes a plot as "riverside" or "with a stream", treat that as a reason to check, not a selling point.
- If you are already building close to a river, ask whether the work sits inside the buffer before more money goes into it. The Commission and the PRA told residents to use official channels and the relevant government offices for clarification.
Questions to send your caretaker or contractor this week
You cannot see the plot, so the useful thing is to ask specific questions and request photos and short videos that answer them. Asking generally whether everything is fine tends to get a yes.
For a plot with nothing on it yet
- Are the beacons still visible at every corner? Ask for a photo of each one. Heavy rain and run-off can move or bury them, and a missing beacon is easier to deal with now than in a boundary dispute later. Our guide to land survey fees in Kenya covers what a surveyor does when beacons go missing.
- Is water standing on the plot after a night of rain, and where does it drain to?
- Has anyone started using the plot, for a path, for dumping or for parking, while the ground is soft and no one is watching?
For a house under construction
- Is there an open trench or foundation filling with water? Ask the contractor what they plan to do about it and whether work should pause.
- Are cement, steel and timber stored off the ground and covered?
- Is the site drained so run-off goes away from the foundation and not onto a neighbour's land?
- Ask for a dated photo of each part of the work before you release the next payment. We go through this in how to supervise construction works from abroad.
For a finished house or a rental
- Are the gutters and downpipes clear, and where does the roof water go?
- Are the drains around the compound and at the gate clear of silt and rubbish?
- Are there damp patches, new cracks or leaks inside? Ask the tenant or caretaker to report them in writing with photos, and keep those messages with your property file.
- Does the caretaker know who to call if water gets in, and who pays for an emergency repair up to what amount? Put that in writing before it is needed. Our post on caretaker salary and duties has a starting point.
If you are buying during the rains
Wet weeks are a good time to look at land. A plot that floods in November will flood again. If you are in the middle of a purchase:
- Ask your agent or a relative to visit after a heavy downpour and film the plot and the access road.
- Ask neighbours whether the area flooded in previous long rains. Write down what they say, but check it against what you see.
- Do not let the rains rush you. A seller who says the price goes up after the season is pushing for a decision before you have checked the ground.
- Run your title and agent checks the same as you would in any season. Our step-by-step guide to buying land in Kenya from abroad lists the documents.
If you want a second opinion on a plot you are looking at, ask bRRAIn, our property research assistant, what to check before you pay.
What to watch between now and February
Kenya Met publishes updated forecasts through the season, and county governments issue local alerts. Keep an eye on the forecasts for the county where your property sits, not only the national headline. If the outlook holds, the risk does not end in December, since Citizen Digital's report had El Nino conditions possibly lasting into February 2027.
Before the heaviest weeks arrive, send your caretaker or contractor this list, ask for dated photos, and put the emergency contact and spending limit in writing.
Sources: K24, 26 August 2026 (Kenya Met outlook, 80% of the country, named counties, IOD). Kenyans.co.ke, 26 August 2026 (onset by region). Citizen Digital, 9 September 2026 (18 high-risk counties, riparian evacuation call, El Nino to February 2027). Kenyans.co.ke, 6 September 2026 (Kenya Red Cross, Nairobi hotspots). K24, 21 September 2026 (Kenya Met advisory). Kenyans.co.ke, 14 August 2026 (Nairobi Rivers Commission demarcation). Business Daily, 2 March 2026 (Environment and Land Court ruling). This article is general information, not legal or financial advice.